Automated Organization Profile

Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa

Current S-Index

1.8

Sum of Dataset Indices for all datasets

Average Dataset Index per Dataset

1.8

Average Dataset Index per dataset

Total Datasets

1

Total datasets in this organization

Average FAIR Score

15.4%

Average FAIR Score per dataset

Total Citations

3

Total citations to the organization's datasets

Total Mentions

0

Total mentions of the organization's datasets

S-Index Interpretation

S-Index Over Time

Cumulative Citations Over Time

Cumulative Mentions Over Time

Datasets

The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting U.S. Recessions: A Mixed-frequency Markov-switching Vector Autoregressive Approach (Version: 3.0)

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performances to those of a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR, where the EPU is averaged over the months to produce quarterly values) and a Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out-of-sample forecasts of recession probabilities which are more accurate than those derived from the MS-VAR and MS-AR models. The results highlight the importance of using high-frequency values of the EPU, and not averaging them to obtain quarterly values, when forecasting recessionary regimes for the U.S. economy.

Authors

  • Balcilar, Mehmet ;
  • Gupta, Rangan ;
  • Segnon, Mawuli
3 Citations0 Mentions15% FAIR1.8 Dataset Index
10.7910/dvn/t0ao8v2016