Automated Author Profile

Williams, Noah

Current S-Index

3.1

Sum of Dataset Indices for all datasets

Average Dataset Index per Dataset

1.5

Average Dataset Index per dataset

Total Datasets

2

Total datasets for this author

Average FAIR Score

69.2%

Average FAIR Score per dataset

Total Citations

2

Total citations to the author's datasets

Total Mentions

0

Total mentions of the author's datasets

S-Index Interpretation

S-Index Over Time

Cumulative Citations Over Time

Cumulative Mentions Over Time

Datasets

Replication data for: Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation (Version: 1)

We use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate the parameters of a true data-generating mechanism and those of a sequence of approximating models that a monetary authority uses to guide its decisions. Gaps between a true expectational Phillips curve and the monetary authoritys approximating nonexpectational Phillips curve models unleash inflation that a monetary authority that knows the true model would avoid. A sequence of dynamic programming problems implies that the monetary authoritys inflation target evolves as its estimated Phillips curve moves. Our estimates attribute the rise and fall of post- WWII inflation in the United States to an intricate interaction between the monetary authoritys beliefs and economic shocks. Shocks in the 1970s made the monetary authority perceive a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment which ignited big inflation. The monetary authoritys beliefs about the Phillips curve changed in ways that account for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volckers conquest of U.S. inflation. (JEL E24, E31, E52, N12)

Authors

  • Sargent, Thomas ;
  • Williams, Noah ;
  • Zha, Tao
1 Citation0 Mentions69% FAIR1.5 Dataset Index
10.3886/e116230v12006

Replication data for: Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation (Version: V0)

We use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate the parameters of a true data-generating mechanism and those of a sequence of approximating models that a monetary authority uses to guide its decisions. Gaps between a true expectational Phillips curve and the monetary authoritys approximating nonexpectational Phillips curve models unleash inflation that a monetary authority that knows the true model would avoid. A sequence of dynamic programming problems implies that the monetary authoritys inflation target evolves as its estimated Phillips curve moves. Our estimates attribute the rise and fall of post- WWII inflation in the United States to an intricate interaction between the monetary authoritys beliefs and economic shocks. Shocks in the 1970s made the monetary authority perceive a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment which ignited big inflation. The monetary authoritys beliefs about the Phillips curve changed in ways that account for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volckers conquest of U.S. inflation. (JEL E24, E31, E52, N12)

Authors

  • Sargent, Thomas ;
  • Williams, Noah ;
  • Zha, Tao
1 Citation0 Mentions69% FAIR1.5 Dataset Index
10.3886/e1162302006