Individual vital rates, such as mortality and birth rates, are key determinants of lifetime reproductive success, and variability in these rates shapes population dynamics. Previous studies have found that this vital rate heterogeneity can influence demographic properties including population growth rates. However, the explicit effects of the amount of variation within and the covariance between vital rates that can also vary throughout the lifespan on population growth remains unknown. Here, we explore the analytical consequences of nongenetic heterogeneity on long-term population growth rates and rates of evolution by modifying traditional age-structured population projection matrices to incorporate variation among individual vital rates. The model allows vital rates to be permanent throughout life ("fixed condition”) or to change over the lifespan ("dynamic condition”). We reduce the complexity associated with adding individual heterogeneity to age-structured models through a novel application of matrix collapsing ("phenotypic collapsing"), showing how to collapse in a manner that preserves the asymptotic and transient dynamics of the original matrix. The main conclusion is that nongenetic individual heterogeneity can strongly impact the long-term growth rate and rates of evolution. The magnitude and sign of this impact depends heavily on how the heterogeneity covaries across the lifespan of an organism. Our results emphasize that nongenetic variation cannot simply be viewed as random noise, but rather that it has consistent, predictable effects on fitness and evolvability.

AbstractDispersal moves individuals from patches where their immediate ancestors were successful to sites where their genotypes are untested. As a result, dispersal generally reduces fitness, a phenomenon known as “migration load.” The strength of migration load depends on the pattern of dispersal and can be dramatically lessened or reversed when individuals move preferentially toward patches conferring higher fitness. Evolutionary ecologists have long modeled nonrandom dispersal, focusing primarily on its effects on population density over space, the maintenance of genetic variation, and reproductive isolation. Here, we build upon previous work by calculating how the extent of local adaptation and the migration load are affected when individuals differ in their dispersal rate in a genotype-dependent manner that alters their match to their environment. Examining a one-locus, two-patch model, we show that local adaptation occurs through a combination of natural selection and adaptive dispersal. For a substantial portion of parameter space, adaptive dispersal can be the predominant force generating local adaptation. Furthermore, genetic load may be largely averted with adaptive dispersal whenever individuals move before selective deaths occur. Thus, to understand the mechanisms driving local adaptation, biologists must account for the extent and nature of nonrandom, genotype-dependent dispersal, and the potential for adaptation via spatial sorting of genotypes.

AbstractIn the absence of migration, species persistence depends on adaption to a changing environment, but whether and how adaptation to global change is altered by community diversity is not understood. Community diversity may prevent, enhance or alter how species adapt to changing conditions by influencing population sizes, genetic diversity and/or the fitness landscape experienced by focal species. We tested the impact of community diversity on adaptation by performing a reciprocal transplant experiment on grasses that evolved for 14 years under ambient and elevated CO2, in communities of low or high species-richness. Using biomass as a fitness proxy, we find evidence for local adaptation to elevated CO2, but only for plants assayed in a community of similar diversity to the one experienced during the period of selection. Our results indicate that the biological community shapes the very nature of the fitness landscape within which species evolve in response to elevated CO2.

AbstractInterspecific competition can strongly influence the evolutionary response of a species to a changing environment, impacting the chance that the species survives or goes extinct. Previous work has shown that when two species compete for a temporally shifting resource distribution, the species lagging behind the resource peak is the first to go extinct due to competitive exclusion. However, this work assumed symmetrically distributed resources and competition. Asymmetries can generate differences between species in population sizes, genetic variation and trait means. We show that asymmetric resource availability or competition can facilitate coexistence and even occasionally cause the leading species to go extinct first. Surprisingly, we also find cases where traits evolve in the opposite direction to the changing environment because of a ‘vacuum of competitive release’ created when the lagging species declines in number. Thus, the species exhibiting the slowest rate of trait evolution is not always the most likely to go extinct in a changing environment. Our results demonstrate that the extent to which species appear to be tracking environmental change and the extent to which they are preadapted to that change may not necessarily determine which species will be the winners and which will be the losers in a rapidly changing world.

AbstractSpecies’ life history traits, including maturation age, number of reproductive bouts, offspring size and number, reflect adaptations to diverse biotic and abiotic selection pressures. A striking example of divergent life histories is the evolution of either iteroparity (breeding multiple times) or semelparity (breed once and die). We analysed published data on salmonid fishes and found that semelparous species produce larger eggs, that egg size and number increase with salmonid body size among populations and species and that migratory behaviour and parity interact. We developed three hypotheses that might explain the patterns in our data and evaluated them in a stage-structured modelling framework accounting for different growth and survival scenarios. Our models predict the observation of small eggs in iteroparous species when egg size is costly to maternal survival or egg number is constrained. By exploring trait co-variation in salmonids, we generate new hypotheses for the evolution of trade-offs among life history traits.

AbstractAnisogamy is known to generate an important cost for sexual reproduction (the famous "twofold cost of sex"). However, male-female differences may have other consequences on the evolution of sex, due to the fact that selective pressures may differ among the sexes. On the one hand, intralocus sexual conflict should favor asexual females, which can fix female-beneficial, male-detrimental alleles. On the other hand, it has been suggested repeatedly that sexual selection among males may help to purge the mutation load, providing an advantage to sexual females. However, no analytical model has computed the strength of selection acting on a modifier gene affecting the frequency of sexual reproduction when selection differs between the sexes. In this paper we analyze a two-locus model using two approaches: a QLE analysis and a local stability analysis, whose predictions are verified using a multilocus simulation. We find that costly sex can be maintained when selection is stronger in males than in females, but acts in the same direction in both. Complete asexuality, however, evolves under any other form of selection. Finally, we discuss how experimental measurements of fitness variances and covariances between sexes could be used to determine the overall direction and strength on selection for sex arising from differences in selection between males and females.

AbstractDioecy, the sexual system in which male and female organs are found in separate individuals, allows greater specialization for sex-specific functions and can be advantageous under various ecological and environmental conditions. However, dioecy is rare among flowering plants. Previous studies identified contradictory trends regarding the relative diversification rates of dioecious lineages vs their nondioecious counterparts, depending on the methods and data used. We gathered detailed species-level data for dozens of genera that contain both dioecious and nondioecious species. We then applied a probabilistic approach that accounts for differential speciation, extinction, and transition rates between states to examine whether there is an association between dioecy and lineage diversification. We found a bimodal distribution, whereby dioecious lineages exhibited higher diversification in certain genera but lower diversification in others. Additional analyses did not uncover an ecological or life history trait that could explain a context-dependent effect of dioecy on diversification. Furthermore, in-depth simulations of neutral characters demonstrated that such bimodality is also found when simulating neutral characters across the observed trees. Our analyses suggest that – at least for these genera with the currently available data – dioecy neither consistently places a strong brake on diversification nor is a strong driver.

AbstractThere is a long tradition in population genetics of exploring the maintenance of variation under migration-selection balance using deterministic models that assume infinite population size. With finite population size, stochastic dynamics can greatly reduce the potential for the maintenance of polymorphism, but this has yet to be explored in detail. Here, classical two-patch models are extended to predict: i) the probability of a locally beneficial mutation rising in frequency in the patch where it is favored, and ii) the critical threshold migration rate above which the maintenance of polymorphism is much less likely. Individual-based simulations show that these approximations provide accurate predictions across a wide range of parameter space.

AbstractDiploid organisms manipulate the extent to which their haploid gametes experience selection. Animals typically produce sperm with a diploid complement of most proteins and RNA, limiting selection on the haploid genotype. Plants, however, exhibit extensive expression in pollen, with actively transcribed haploid genomes. Here we analyze models that track the evolution of genes that modify the strength of haploid selection to predict when evolution intensifies and when it dampens the “selective arena” within which male gametes compete for fertilization. Considering deleterious mutations, evolution leads diploid mothers to strengthen selection among haploid sperm/pollen, because this reduces the mutation load inherited by their diploid offspring. If, however, selection acts in opposite directions in haploids and diploids (“ploidally antagonistic selection”), mothers evolve to reduce haploid selection to avoid selectively amplifying alleles harmful to their offspring. Consequently, with maternal control, selection in the haploid phase either is maximized or reaches an intermediate state, depending on the deleterious mutation rate relative to the extent of ploidally antagonistic selection. By contrast, evolution generally leads diploid fathers to mask mutations in their gametes to the maximum extent possible, whenever masking (e.g., through transcript sharing) increases the average fitness of a father’s gametes. We discuss the implications of this maternal–paternal conflict over the extent of haploid selection and describe empirical studies needed to refine our understanding of haploid selection among seemingly diploid organisms.

AbstractCurrent debates about the efficacy of no-take marine reserves (MR) in protecting large pelagic fish such as tuna and sharks have usually not considered the evolutionary dimension of this issue, which emerges because the propensity to swim away from a given place, like any other biological trait, will probably vary in a heritable fashion among individuals. Here, based on spatially-explicit simulations, we investigated whether selection to remain in MRs to avoid higher fishing mortality can lead to the evolution of more philopatric fish. Our simulations, which covered a range of life histories among tuna species (skipjack tuna vs. Atlantic Bluefin tuna) and shark species (great white sharks vs. spiny dogfish) suggested that MRs were most effective at maintaining viable population sizes when movement distances were lowest. Decreased movement rate evolved following the establishment of marine reserves, and this evolution occurred more rapidly with higher fishing pressure. Evolutionary reductions in movement rate led to increases in within-reserve population sizes over the course of the 50 years following MR establishment, although this varied among life-histories, with skipjack responding fastest and great white sharks slowest. Our results suggest the evolution of decreased movement can augment the efficacy of marine reserves, especially for species, such as skipjack tuna, with relatively short generation times. Even when movement rates did not evolve substantially over 50 years (e.g., given long generation times or little heritable variation), marine reserves were an effective tool for the conservation of fish populations when mean movement rates were low or MRs were large.