The sustained exploitation of marine populations requires an understanding of a species' adaptive seascape so that populations can track environmental changes from short- and long-term climate cycles and from human development. The analysis of the distributions of genetic markers among populations, together with correlates of life-history and environmental variability, can provide insights into the extent of adaptive variation. Here, we examined genetic variability among populations of mature European anchovies (n = 531) in the Adriatic (13 samples) and Tyrrhenian seas (2 samples) with neutral and putative non-neutral microsatellite loci. These genetic markers failed to confirm the occurrence of two anchovy species in the Adriatic Sea, as previously postulated. However, we found fine-scale population structure in the Adriatic, especially in northern areas, that was associated with four of the 13 environmental variables tested. Geographic gradients in sea temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen appear to drive adaptive differences in spawning time and early larval development among populations. Resolving adaptive seascapes in Adriatic anchovies provides a means to understand mechanisms underpinning local adaptation and a basis for optimizing exploitation strategies for sustainable harvests.

It is well known that temporal fluctuations in small populations deeply influence evolutionary potential. Less well known is whether fluctuations can influence the evolutionary potentials of species with large census sizes. Here, we estimated genetic population parameters from as survey of polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci in archived otoliths from Adriatic European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), a fish with large census sizes that supports numerous local fisheries. Stocks have fluctuated greatly over the past few decades, and the Adriatic fishery collapsed in 1987. Our results show a significant reduction of mean genetic parameters as a consequence of the population collapse. In addition, estimates of effective population size (Ne) are much smaller than those expected in a fishes with large population census sizes (Nc). Estimates of Ne indicate low effective population sizes, even before the population collapse. The ratio Ne/Ne ranged between 10−6 and 10−8, indicating a large discrepancy between the anchovy gene pool and population census size. Therefore, anchovy populations may be more vulnerable to fishery effort and environmental change than previously thought.