The identification of the source-sink status of a population is critical for the establishment of conservation plans and enacting smart management decisions. We developed an integrated population model to formally assess the source status of a kestrel Falco tinnunculus population breeding in nest boxes in Switzerland. We estimated juvenile and adult survival, reproduction and net dispersal (emigration/immigration) by jointly analyzing capture-recapture, dead recovery, breeding monitoring and population survey data. We also investigated the role of nest boxes on kestrel demography and assessed the contributions of vital rates to realized population growth rates. The results indicate that the kestrel population breeding in nest boxes has acted as a source over the 15 years of the study duration. A quantitative approach suggests that a substantial number of individuals have emigrated annually from this population likely affecting the population dynamics outside the management area. Variation in fecundity explained 34% of the temporal variability of the population growth rate. Moreover, a literature review suggests that kestrel pairs produce on average 1.4 chicks more per breeding attempt in nest boxes compared to natural open nests. Together, these findings suggest that fecundity was an important driver for the dynamics of this population and that nest boxes have contributed to its raise. Nest boxes are regularly used as an efficient tool for conservation management. We suggest that such a conservation action can result in the establishment of a source population being beneficial for populations both inside and outside the managed area.

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This zip file contains the data associated with the manuscript entitled Integrated modeling of insect population dynamics at two temporal scalesbyE Dennis, M. Kery, B. Morgan, A. Coray, M. Schaub & B. Baur
Please see the manuscript for further details of the data and how they were collected.
Accompanying R scripts are also available.

This zip file contains the data associated with the manuscript entitled Integrated modeling of insect population dynamics at two temporal scalesbyE Dennis, M. Kery, B. Morgan, A. Coray, M. Schaub & B. Baur
Please see the manuscript for further details of the data and how they were collected.
Accompanying R scripts are also available.

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Theoretical work has emphasized the important role of individual traits on population dynamics, but empirical models are often based on average or stage-dependent demographic rates. In this study on a monogamous bird, the Eurasian hoopoe (Upupa epops), we show how the interactions between male and female fixed and dynamic heterogeneity influence demographic rates and population dynamics. We built an integral projection model including individual sex, age, condition (reflecting dynamic heterogeneity) and fixed morphology (reflecting fixed heterogeneity). Fixed morphology was derived from a principal component analysis of six morphological traits. Our results revealed that reproductive success and survival were linked to fixed heterogeneity whereas dynamic heterogeneity influenced mainly the timing of reproduction. Fixed heterogeneity had major consequences for the population growth rate, but interestingly, its effect on population dynamics differed between the sexes. Female fixed morphology was directly linked to annual reproductive success whereas male fixed morphology influenced also annual survival, being twice higher in large than in small males. Even in a monogamous bird with shared parental care, large males can reach 10% higher fitness than females. Including the dynamics of male and female individual traits in population models refines our understanding of the individual mechanisms that influence demographic rates and population dynamics and can help identifying differences in sex-specific strategies.

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