The accuracy of genomic selection depends on the relatedness between the members of the set in which marker effects are estimated based on evaluation data and the types for which performance is predicted. Here, we investigate the impact of relatedness on the performance of marker-assisted selection for fungal disease resistance in hybrid wheat. A large and diverse mapping population of 1,739 elite European winter wheat inbred lines and hybrids was evaluated for powdery mildew, leaf rust, and stripe rust resistance in multi-location field trials and fingerprinted with 9k and 90k SNP arrays. Comparison of the accuracies of prediction achieved with data sets from the two marker arrays revealed a crucial role for a sufficiently high marker density in genome-wide association mapping. Cross- validation studies using test sets with varying degrees of relationship to the corresponding estimation sets unraveled that close relatedness leads to a substantial increase in the proportion of total genotypic variance explained by the identified QTL and, consequently, to an overoptimistic judgment of the prospected precision of marker-assisted selection.

Joint linkage association mapping (JLAM) combines the advantages of linkage mapping and association mapping, and is a powerful tool to dissect the genetic architecture of complex traits. The main goal of this study was to use a cross-validation strategy, resample model averaging and empirical data analyses to compare seven different biometrical models for JLAM with regard to the correction for population structure and the quantitative trait loci (QTL) detection power. Three linear models and four linear mixed models with different approaches to control for population stratification were evaluated. Models A, B and C were linear models with either cofactors (Model-A), or cofactors and a population effect (Model-B), or a model in which the cofactors and the single-nucleotide polymorphism effect were modeled as nested within population (Model-C). The mixed models, D, E, F and G, included a random population effect (Model-D), or a random population effect with defined variance structure (Model-E), a kinship matrix defining the degree of relatedness among the genotypes (Model-F), or a kinship matrix and principal coordinates (Model-G). The tested models were conceptually different and were also found to differ in terms of power to detect QTL. Model-B with the cofactors and a population effect, effectively controlled population structure and possessed a high predictive power. The varying allele substitution effects in different populations suggest as a promising strategy for JLAM to use Model-B for the detection of QTL and then to estimate their effects by applying Model-C.