Physiological Aging in India: The Role of the Epidemiological Transition

We construct a cohort-based frailty index from age-related health deficits to investigate physiological aging in India over the period 1990-2019. During this period, the Indian states underwent at different speeds the epidemiological transition and experienced unprecedented economic growth. We show that the rate of physiological aging remained remarkably stable to the changing environment. Age-related health deficits increased by about 3 percent per year of age with little variation across states, ages, cohorts, and over time. We find that, with advancing epidemiological transition, health deficits for given age declined at the individual level (within states and within cohorts). Across cohorts born between 1900 and 1995, we show that, for given age, health deficits are higher for later-born cohorts until birth years around 1940 and remained trendless afterwards. We propose a selection-based theory of aging during the epidemiological transition that explains these facts.