Multi-species occupancy model for estimating the probability of detecting amphibian species in Hungary

Research into freshwater communities often aims to link patterns of species distribution in ponds with underlying biotic factors. However, errors with species detection (e.g., false negatives) may underestimate distribution and bias assessments of community structure. Occupancy models that account for imperfect detection offer a solution to this problem. Here, we used three methods (call/ visual encounter surveys, dip-netting and newt trapping) to survey amphibians and fish (potential amphibian predators) at 100 ponds in an urbanised landscape in Hungary over one breeding season. We estimated species detection probabilities for amphibians (all life stages combined) and fish using multi-species occupancy models to gain insight into amphibian-fish relationships and other survey-specific variables. We detected nine amphibian and 20 fish species. There were relatively low but variable estimated probabilities of detection for amphibians (mean: 0.320, 95% Bayesian credible interval: 0.142 – 0.598), with three species having detection rates < 0.1. Probabilities of detection peaked in the middle of the breeding season and increased with survey effort. Detection probabilities of five species were negatively associated with the detection of fish at a pond, while there were positive relationships between detection and emergent vegetation cover. We found no substantial differences in detection rates among the three survey methods. The probability of detecting fish was much higher than for amphibians (0.588, 0.503 – 0.717) but was lower at ponds with high emergent vegetation where amphibian detection was higher. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for the imperfect detection of both response organisms and potentially interacting species in aquatic community studies. We recommend applying multi-species occupancy models to enable inference for both common and rare species at ponds in landscapes subjected to human disturbances.