Description
The data on Swedish Riksbank's density forecasts of CPI inflation, actual inflation and NIER's forecasts of Swedish inflation are used in an illustration of testing forecast efficiency conditions.
FParam.tsv
Sweden's central bank (Riksbank) started to publish its density forecasts of inflation in June 1998. The forecasts are in the form of two-piece normal distribution. The target variable is the yearly CPI inflation. We evaluate only one-year-ahead forecasts. There are 64 forecasts available for evaluation for the period 1999–2015. They were issued 4 times a year with approximately quarterly frequency. Forecasts before 2007 are conditional, assuming a predetermined trajectory of the repo rate. The file contains 4 variables: the 3 parameters of two-piece normal distribution mu, s1, s2 and the date (month).
Actual.tsv
The file contains the actual values of the CPI innflation (the so called shadow version).
Actual_Last.tsv
The file contains the actual lagged values of the CPI innflation.
NIER.tsv
The file contains the point forecasts of inflation by the National Institute of Economic Research.
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Publication Details
DOI
Publisher
figshare
Subfield
Signal Processing
Field
Computer Science
Domain
Physical Sciences
Confidence Score
42%
Source
Scholar Data Model