Riksbank's and NIER's forecasts of Swedish inflation

Tsyplakov, Alexander

Description

The data on Swedish Riksbank's density forecasts of CPI inflation, actual inflation and NIER's forecasts of Swedish inflation are used in an illustration of testing forecast efficiency conditions.
FParam.tsv
Sweden's central bank (Riksbank) started to publish its density forecasts of inflation in June 1998. The forecasts are in the form of two-piece normal distribution. The target variable is the yearly CPI inflation. We evaluate only one-year-ahead forecasts. There are 64 forecasts available for evaluation for the period 1999–2015. They were issued 4 times a year with approximately quarterly frequency. Forecasts before 2007 are conditional, assuming a predetermined trajectory of the repo rate. The file contains 4 variables: the 3 parameters of two-piece normal distribution mu, s1, s2 and the date (month).
Actual.tsv
The file contains the actual values of the CPI innflation (the so called shadow version).
Actual_Last.tsv
The file contains the actual lagged values of the CPI innflation.
NIER.tsv
The file contains the point forecasts of inflation by the National Institute of Economic Research.

Citations (0)

Mentions (0)

Metrics

Dataset Index

0.5

FAIR Score

88%

Citations

0

Mentions

0

Metrics Over Time

Publication Details

DOI

Publisher

figshare

License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Assigned Domain

Subfield

Signal Processing

Field

Computer Science

Domain

Physical Sciences

Confidence Score

42%

Source

Scholar Data Model

Keywords

Economic models and forecasting

Normalization Factors

FT

57.69

CTw

1.00

MTw

1.00