Validation of Risk Assessment Tools for Predicting Re-offending at Different Developmental Periods, 1951-2010

The study was a secondary data analysis examining the accuracy of risk assessment tools in predicting re-offending during early adulthood (age 18 to 25 years) compared to their accuracy in predicting re-offending during adolescence (age 12-17 years; youth tools only) or in later adulthood (older than 25 years, adult tools only). The investigators combined datasets that involved the same risk assessment tools. The adolescent risk assessment tools included the North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR), the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), and the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk for Youth (SAVRY). The adult risk assessment tools included the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 items (HCR-20) and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). Using the datasets, the study examined the following recidivism outcomes: (1) any type of re-offending (excluded status offenses), and (2) violent re-offending specifically.