Pivoting forestry and agricultural concessions toward conservation in Southeast Asia

OverviewThis repository contains the per-concession economic analysis results, R scripts, and high-resolution map images supporting the paper "Pivoting forestry and agricultural concessions toward conservation in Southeast Asia". The study evaluated the amount of natural forests remaining within industrial concessions and the economic viability of protecting these forests through avoided deforestation carbon projects. To accomplish the latter, it estimated the break-even carbon prices at which transitioning to forest protection can compete financially with forestry and agriculture.The repository is divided into three folders. 1. PCCSEA_GradientsThese .csv files (also provided in .rds format) consist of the deforestation rates, forest aboveground carbon densities, forest area sizes, and gradients of the break-even carbon price formula computed for each concession examined. Data are grouped according to country (Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, or Myanmar) and concession type (logging, oil palm, planted wood, or rubber).Gradients are presented for all combinations of sensitivity scenarios tested. Multiplying the gradient by the annual project cost (USD / ha / year) will yield the break-even carbon price (USD per t CO2). Note that for this dataset, we only include concessions which have deforestation rates > 0. Interpretations of column namesFID, objectid, NAME, or similarIdentity tags associated with each concession, matching those in the attribute tables of the spatial concession datasets employed in this study.ADR[baseline][years]Annual baseline deforestation rates (% / year) calculated by applying the Puyravaud formula, using one of four deforestation baseline variants (conc: concession-specific, type: type-specific, jur: jurisdictional, nat: national), and for over a period of either 5 (2019 to 2024) or 10 (2014 to 2024) years of historical deforestation.ACDmeanMean aboveground carbon density (Mg C / ha) of natural tropical moist forest within the concession.ACDse.ESSStandard error of aboveground carbon density, propagated accounting for spatial autocorrelation.Area_haArea of natural tropical moist forest within the concession, in hectares.G[baseline][years]BC[buffer credit %]R[discount rate %]EI[effectiveness index %]Gradient of the break-even carbon price formula calculated using a particular combination of parameters —The baseline variant (conc: concession-specific, type: type-specific, jur: jurisdictional, nat: national)Number of years of historical deforestation considered to build the baseline (5, 10)The buffer credit % set aside to address potential non-permanence (10, 20, 30, 40)The risk-adjusted discount rate % (5, 8, 10, 15)The effectiveness index % weighting a project's success at avoiding deforestation (70, 80, 90, 100)GU[baseline][years]BC[buffer credit %]R[discount rate %]EI[effectiveness index %]Uncertainty associated with the gradient. 2. PCCSEA_MapsHigh-resolution images showing the extent of natural forests in concessions that can competitively transition to protecting forests at varying carbon price tiers. Files follow the naming convention [concession type]_[baseline][stastical estimate]_PriceTiers.png, where the baseline variant is either concession-specific (conc) or jurisdictional (jur), and the statistical estimate used is the mean (M), lower-bound (LB), or upper-bound (UB) break-even carbon price.Original forest layer source: EC JRC; http://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/TMF (website); Vancutsem, C. et al. Long-term (1990-2019) monitoring of forest cover changes in the humid tropics. Sci. Adv. 7 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe1603 (paper)Original concession layer sources:Global Forest Watch Open Data PortalIndonesia Ministry of Forestry, Greenpeace & World Resources Institute. Indonesia logging concessions, https://data.globalforestwatch.org/datasets/gfw::indonesia-logging-concessions/about (Global Forest Watch, 2018). Custom license (see dataset link for details).Indonesia Ministry of Forestry, Greenpeace & World Resources Institute. Indonesia oil palm concessions, https://data.globalforestwatch.org/datasets/gfw::indonesia-oil-palm-concessions/about (Global Forest Watch, 2018). Custom license (see dataset link for details).Indonesia Ministry of Forestry, Asia Pulp and Paper, APRIL, Greenpeace & World Resources Institute. Indonesia wood fiber concessions, https://data.globalforestwatch.org/datasets/gfw::indonesia-wood-fiber-concessions/about (Global Forest Watch, 2018). Custom license (see dataset link for details).Earthsights Investigations & Global Witness. Sarawak logging concessions, https://data.globalforestwatch.org/datasets/gfw::sarawak-logging-concessions/about (Global Forest Watch, 2019). CC BY 4.0.SADIA, AidEnvironment & Earthsights Investigations. Sarawak oil palm concessions, https://data.globalforestwatch.org/datasets/gfw::sarawak-oil-palm-concessions/about (Global Forest Watch, 2019). CC BY 4.0.Earthsights Investigations & Global Witness. Sarawak Licenses for Planted Forests (LPFs), https://data.globalforestwatch.org/datasets/gfw::sarawak-licenses-for-planted-forests-lpfs/about (Global Forest Watch, 2019). CC BY 4.0.LICADHO. Cambodia Land Concessions, https://data.globalforestwatch.org/documents/gfw::cambodia-land-concessions/about (Global Forest Watch, 2020). CC BY-SA 4.0.OneMap Myanmar GeoPortal, https://www.onemap-geoportal.gov.mm/ (Open Development Myanmar, 2018). CC BY-SA 4.0. 3. PCCSEA_RScriptsPCCSEA_Script_S1.R covers the code used to determine the total areas of natural forests in concessions, their corresponding carbon stock, and their intersection with Key Biodiversity Areas. It also covers the calculation of annual deforestation rates for the different deforestation baseline variants.PCCSEA_Script_S2.R covers the code used to obtain break-even carbon price gradients, derive annual project costs, plot break-even price curves, and estimate break-even carbon prices for individual concessions. It also covers the generation of forest extent rasters for the production of the carbon price tier maps.