Military Exposure and Crime in the Very Long Run: Evidence from the Vietnam Lotteries

We investigate the long-term impact of military exposure on criminal offending by exploiting random variation induced by the Vietnam Draft Lottery. Using administrative records of California arrests spanning the 1970s through the 2000s, we employ both reduced-form and Two-Sample Instrumental Variable approaches and find that military exposure significantly and substantially increases violent offending. Strikingly, effects are remarkably persistent, with violent crime elevated even three decades after the war. Examination of potential pathways provides no evidence that offending is driven by income-generation motives or prior experience with firearms, but offers suggestive evidence that exposure to trauma may be a key driver.