Data and Code for: The Demographic Effects of Dodging the Vietnam Draft

This paper provides time series evidence that the availability of hardship deferments led to large increases in U.S. fertility rates in the late 1960s, producing a fertility notch driven by elevated numbers of first births (hardship deferments required one child) among women in their early twenties (likely to be partnered with draft-eligible men). Following President Nixon’s Executive Order eliminating paternity as grounds for hardship in April 1970, fertility rates plummeted—especially for women who were likely to be partnered with draft-age men. We conclude by quantifying counterfactual fertility rates and a discussion of how these findings impact interpretations of the sharp decline in U.S. fertility rates after 1970.